Notional Spread of Cholera in Haiti Following a Natural Disaster: Considerations for Military and Disaster Relief Personnel.

This article focuses on the use of epidemiological modeling to assess the potential re-emergence and spread of cholera in Haiti following the August 2021 earthquake and tropical storm Grace, amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Using the EpiGrid extended compartmental model, simulations were conducted for cholera outbreaks originating in three Haitian departments—Nippes, Sud, and Grand'Anse—based on parameters from the 2010 outbreak. Results indicate that an outbreak starting in Nippes could result in the largest geographic spread and highest cumulative cases (up to 79,518 without intervention), while timely public health interventions reducing transmission by 30% could significantly decrease cases across all scenarios. The study underscores the importance of epidemiological modeling for military and humanitarian emergency planning, highlighting that interventions such as water chlorination, point-of-use filtration, and hygiene promotion are critical to mitigating cholera transmission in disaster-affected, resource-limited settings.