Can nationalism and group conflict explain cultural and economic threat perceptions? Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence from the ISSP (1995–2013).

This article investigates how nationalism and group conflict factors—specifically immigrant group size and economic conditions—affect perceptions of cultural and economic threats posed by immigrants across 23 European and non-European countries over nearly 20 years (1995–2013). Using data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) National Identity Module and applying societal growth curve models, the study finds that nationalism significantly predicts both cultural and economic threat perceptions at the individual level, but no evidence supports a contextual (group-level) effect of nationalism. Additionally, longitudinal analyses reveal little support for Realistic Group Conflict Theory (RGCT) claims that changes in immigrant group size or economic conditions causally influence threat perceptions, though an interaction exists whereby individual nationalist attitudes moderate the impact of unemployment rates on perceived threats. The findings highlight the importance of distinguishing between individual and contextual effects and between cultural and economic threat perceptions in understanding attitudes toward immigrants.