Motivated Optimism and Workplace Risk.

This article investigates motivated optimism—where individuals distort their beliefs to manage anticipatory emotions—in the context of U.S. workers returning to their workplaces during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using survey data collected in May 2020 from furloughed or work-from-home employees who had no choice but to return to work, the study finds that as the return date approaches, workers become more optimistic about their infection risk at work and less optimistic about infection risk at home. These belief distortions are more pronounced among individuals with higher health stakes, such as older workers or those with pre-existing conditions identified by the CDC as high-risk. The research design leverages exogenous variation in return-to-work timing and controls for confounds like selection bias and cognitive dissonance, providing evidence consistent with a dynamic anticipatory utility model where belief distortions depend on both time and stakes. The findings have implications for understanding when and for whom interventions to correct biased beliefs might be most effective, while also highlighting challenges in assessing the welfare impact of such motivated beliefs.