Long-term effects of sectarian politics: evidence from Lebanon.

This article investigates the long-term economic impact of sectarian politics amid weak state capacity by analyzing the 1956 civil uprising between Maronite Christian and Sunni Muslim factions in Lebanon. Using a synthetic control estimator to construct a counterfactual growth trajectory based on Lebanon's pre-1956 economic and institutional characteristics, the study finds that Lebanon's per capita GDP today is approximately 41% to 59% lower than it would have been without the uprising. The results suggest that sectarian conflict caused a structural break, leading to persistent political instability, institutional fragmentation, and slowed economic growth, effects that were robust across various placebo and sensitivity tests. The study highlights how sectarian fractionalization and polarized ideologies can undermine inclusive institutions and sustainable development, with implications for fragile multiethnic states facing similar challenges.