JOURNAL ARTICLE

The Impressive Markets Hypothesis: Prices (Still) Forecast Fundamentals.

  • Published In: Journal of Portfolio Management, 2026, v. 52, n. 6. P. 99 1 of 3

  • Database: Business Source Ultimate 2 of 3

  • Authored By: Ezratty, William; Garvey, Gerald T.; McDade, Timothy R.; Robinson, Andrew 3 of 3

Abstract

Despite concerns about reduced market efficiency due to social media herding and information overload, stock prices still contain substantial information about future company fundamentals. Using data from over 3,000 US equities annually between 2004 and 2024, the authors find that market valuations reliably predict future cash flows and continue to do so even when value spreads are wide. A detailed analysis shows that market prices have become better at forecasting revenues but weaker at forecasting margins. The results reinforce the enduring informational power of market prices and suggest that cost-side modeling offers new opportunities for active investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Additional Information

  • Source:Journal of Portfolio Management. 2026/04, Vol. 52, Issue 6, p99
  • Document Type:Article
  • Subject Area:Religion and Philosophy
  • Publication Date:2026
  • ISSN:0095-4918
  • DOI:10.3905/jpm.2026.1.826
  • Accession Number:193016484
  • Copyright Statement:Copyright of Journal of Portfolio Management is the property of With Intelligence Limited and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

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