Forecast of policy‐driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

This article focuses on simulating and predicting land use change and its impact on ecosystem services (ESs) in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) of China under multiple policy-driven scenarios. Using random forest and cellular automata models, the study forecasts land use patterns for 2035 aligned with China’s strategic development goals, comparing four scenarios: natural evolution, ecological protection, cropland protection, and regional coordination. Results indicate that the regional coordination model best balances construction land expansion, ecological protection, and cultivated land preservation, yielding the highest water yield (WY), while cropland protection maximizes carbon storage (CS) and crop production (CP). The study also finds that habitat suitability changes differently affect ESs across mountainous and plain areas, with regional coordination showing strong stability and resilience in ES functions. These findings provide a reference for sustainable land use planning that integrates socioeconomic development with ecosystem integrity in the YREB.