IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH WITH FOREST PRESERVATION IN THE AMAZON AND CERRADO BIOMES IN BRAZIL.

This article analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of "Green Growth" scenarios in Brazil’s main biomes, focusing on the Amazon and Cerrado regions. Using the Brazilian Biomes, Land Use and Emissions Economic Model (BLUME), a dynamic interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model integrating land use and emissions data, the study simulates a zero-deforestation policy combined with increased investments in agricultural productivity. The reference scenario projects continued deforestation and economic growth driven by soybean and cattle production, with 57 million hectares deforested by 2040. The "Green Growth" scenario, involving a 1.3% annual investment increase in agricultural sectors (totaling BRL 542 billion over 20 years), could reduce deforestation by 63%, lower greenhouse gas emissions from land use by 20%, and promote a 1.5% increase in national GDP compared to the reference. However, livestock sectors remain sensitive to land restrictions and would require further investment to offset losses. The study highlights the tradeoff between environmental conservation and economic growth, emphasizing the need for targeted investments and policy enforcement to achieve Brazil’s greenhouse gas mitigation and deforestation reduction goals.