Incremental-Stock-Decremental: Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms of Human-Land Spatial Development Patterns in Beijing's Suburban Areas.

China's megacities are undergoing a critical transition from incremental expansion to stock optimization in order to achieve high-quality spatial development. However, the complex interactions among land use, population, and economy involved in this transition remain underexamined, particularly with respect to human-land relationships in suburban areas. From an incremental-stock-decremental perspective, this paper develops a construction land-population vitality discriminant matrix. Using land use data (CNLUCC), population data (WorldPop), and nighttime light data (DMSP-OLS), the paper examines the spatiotemporal characteristics of human-land spatial development patterns in Beijing's suburban areas from 2000 to 2020 and analyzes the underlying formation mechanisms across different periods. The findings show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, land use in Beijing's suburban areas shifted from incremental expansion to quantitative reduction and qualitative improvement, while population vitality continued to increase and was not constrained by a reduction in land supply. (2) The suburban plain area, strongly influenced by the central city, evolved from free-form expansion to preferential point-like incremental development. In contrast, the ecological conservation zone exhibited the coexistence of incremental and decremental spaces, with population vitality growing increasingly stronger. The suburban areas gradually formed an urban-rural integration pattern in which urban areas led rural development, and the plain area facilitated the development of the ecological conservation zone. (3) Incremental development was primarily shaped by urban master plans and major project initiatives. Incremental-contraction patterns reflect human-land mismatches resulting from uncontrolled sprawl, disorderly construction, and population outflow. Decremental development was mainly driven by land reduction policies, including the demolition of illegal structures, the phasing-out of inefficient industrial land, and pilot programs for intensive land use. Decremental-growth patterns, supported by intensive land use and collective land marketization policies, contributed to a more balanced human-land relationship and fostered high-quality economic and population growth. This paper highlights the critical role of policy-driven strategies in guiding sustainable urban development and enhances our understanding of how to achieve efficient and balanced human-land development in suburban areas. It offers insights applicable to other megacities undergoing similar transitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]