Hydro-Hegemony, Counter-Hegemony and Neoclassical Realism on the Nile Basin: An Analysis of Egypt's Response to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

This article examines Egypt's response to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute within the Nile River Basin, focusing on how Egypt, traditionally a long-term hydro-hegemon, has employed both hegemonic and counter-hegemonic tactics. Using the Framework of Hydro-Hegemony (FHH), counter-hegemonic mechanisms, and Neoclassical Realism (NCR), the study analyzes Egypt's strategies—ranging from securitization and coercion to diplomatic engagement and alliance-building with regional and international actors—to address the perceived national security threat posed by the GERD. It highlights Egypt's paradoxical approach of combining military threats and cooperation, shaped by domestic political dynamics and shifting regional alliances, particularly with Sudan and other Nile riparians. The article concludes that Egypt's multifaceted tactics reflect a complex adaptation by a hydro-hegemon confronting a "fact on the ground" challenge to its water dominance.