Probabilistic model for ultimate displacement of reinforced concrete columns with flexural failure.

In order to describe the probabilistic characteristics of the ultimate displacement, a probabilistic model for ultimate displacement of reinforced concrete columns with flexural failure was proposed based on the Bayesian theory and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. An analytical model for probabilistic ultimate displacement was established first according to the plane cross‐section assumption and the equivalent plastic hinge theory. Then probabilistic model parameters were determined based on the Bayesian theory and the MCMC method. Finally, the proposed model was verified by comparison with 252 sets of experimental data and existing ultimate displacement models. Comparisons show that the proposed model not only provides reasonable prediction accuracy but also describes the probability distribution of ultimate displacement realistically. Furthermore, the proposed model is useful for the validation of the accuracy and applicability of available deterministic ultimate displacement models, which provide probabilistic validation methods based on the confidence interval and probability density function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]