Winter is Coming: Early-life Experiences and Politicians' Decisions.

This article examines how early-life experiences, specifically exposure to China's Great Famine (1959–61), shaped the policy preferences of county party secretaries (CPSs), local officials appointed by higher-level governments with substantial discretion over local fiscal decisions. Using biographical data on 2,806 CPSs born between 1949 and 1969 and fiscal data from 1,713 counties they governed during 1998–2007, the study finds that CPSs who experienced more severe famine in early childhood increased fiscal expenditures on agriculture and social security subsidies while reducing agricultural taxes, resulting in higher grain production in their jurisdictions. The effects are strongest for CPSs who experienced famine under age five, suggesting that early-life hardship influences preferences for food sufficiency and social support. The findings highlight the long-term impact of formative experiences on political decision-making and contribute to understanding heterogeneity in politicians' policy preferences within China's centralized appointment system.