Horticulture could facilitate invasive plant range infilling and range expansion with climate change.

The article examines the geographic relationship between the sale of invasive ornamental plants by U.S. nurseries and the locations where these species are invasive or likely to become invasive under current and future climate conditions. Analyzing data from 672 nurseries selling 89 invasive species, the study found that half of these species are sold within 21 kilometers of known invasions, and 73 species are sold within their potential invaded ranges under current climate, with 25 species sold in areas predicted to become suitable due to climate change. The findings highlight that horticultural trade, including both retail and mail-order nurseries, poses a significant risk of facilitating both existing and climate-driven range expansions of invasive plants. The article emphasizes that inconsistent, state-level regulations are insufficient to manage this risk effectively and advocates for broader, proactive regulatory approaches informed by geographic and predictive modeling to reduce the spread of invasive ornamental species.