The End of the Age-Crime Curve? A Historical Comparison of Male Arrest Rates in the United States, 1985–2019.

This article focuses on the significant shift in the age-crime curve for males in the United States, traditionally understood as peaking in the late teenage years. Using Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrest data from 1985 to 2019, the study finds that the overall arrest rate no longer peaks around age 18 but instead peaks at approximately age 27 in 2019, with a notable decline in arrests among 15-to-19-year-old males. However, when analyzed by birth cohort, the traditional age-crime curve—showing a peak in adolescence followed by a decline in adulthood—remains evident, indicating that the aggregate data reflect cohort differences rather than a fundamental change in individual offending patterns. The article highlights that this unprecedented decline in teenage offending has also been observed in other Western countries and suggests important implications for criminological theory and future research, including the potential influence of social changes and the rise of cyber offending.