Labor Unions and the Electoral Consequences of Trade Liberalization.

This article examines the political effects of Brazil's early 1990s trade liberalization, focusing on how regional tariff reductions influenced voting patterns in subsequent presidential elections. It finds that regions more exposed to tariff cuts experienced a persistent decline in the vote share for left-wing parties, despite the left's traditional association with protectionism and worsening labor market conditions in these areas. The study identifies the weakening of labor unions—measured by declines in union employment, density, and establishments—as a key institutional mechanism behind this shift, since unions historically mobilized support for left-leaning parties. The negative electoral impact was concentrated among parties linked to unions and occurred only in regions with union presence before the reform, suggesting that trade liberalization's political consequences extended beyond individual voter responses to include changes in institutional labor organization.