Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Survey Overestimation of Voter Turnout.

This article examines racial asymmetries in the overestimation of voter turnout intentions, focusing on why Black Americans are more likely than White Americans to overstate their plans to vote. The authors propose that combining questions about turnout intention and candidate preference into a single survey item reduces this overestimation by framing voting as a choice influenced by candidate preference rather than solely as a civic duty, thereby mitigating social desirability bias. Using data from a nationally representative 2020 survey experiment, the study finds that this combined-question approach significantly decreases turnout overestimation among Black respondents, particularly those with high racial civic consciousness—a strong sense of group-based civic duty—and high campaign indifference toward candidates. These findings have implications for improving the accuracy of survey-based turnout measures and understanding voter psychology across racial groups.