Aiming too high or scoring too low? Heterogeneous immigrant–native gaps in upper secondary enrollment and outcomes beyond the transition in France.

This article examines immigrant–native differences in educational choices and outcomes in France, focusing on enrollment in the academically-oriented general and technological (GT) upper secondary track and subsequent academic performance. Using longitudinal data from two cohorts (1995 and 2007), it finds that positive ethnic choice effects—where immigrant-origin students enroll more ambitiously than native peers—are concentrated among working-class students with lower to middle prior achievement. While immigrant-origin students in the 2007 cohort were as likely as natives to complete the GT track and enroll in tertiary education, they still faced disadvantages in graduation timing, grades, and track prestige. Counterfactual analyses reveal that both immigrant students' ambitious enrollment choices and their lower prior academic achievement contribute similarly to these gaps, but ambitious choices also increase overall enrollment and attainment, whereas low prior achievement reduces them. The study suggests that policies aimed at reducing early academic achievement gaps may better support immigrant-origin students' success than those attempting to redirect their educational aspirations.