Peaks and primes: Do athletes get one shot at glory?

This article focuses on analyzing the age and timing of peak performance windows for Olympic track and field athletes using survival analysis. Drawing on data from World Athletics covering seven Olympic Games (1996–2020), the study finds that athletes typically reach their peak performance around age 27, coinciding with their prime Olympic participation years. Training age, defined as years of recorded competition experience, is identified as the strongest predictor of an athlete's peak, while factors such as event type, nationality, gender, and Olympic year have lesser influence. The analysis also highlights exceptional cases like sprinter Kim Collins, who exhibited multiple peak periods well beyond the average retirement age. The study underscores the constrained and variable nature of athletic primes within the four-year Olympic cycle and suggests further research to refine predictive models and account for qualification pathways.