Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Effect of NIL and Transfer Rule Changes on College Basketball Players Entering the NBA Draft.

This article examines how the 2021 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) rule changes regarding name, image, and likeness (NIL) compensation and transfer eligibility have influenced the NBA draft decisions of men's college basketball players. Analyzing top 100 draft prospects from 2019 to 2024, the study finds that following these rule changes, fewer college players—especially those projected to be drafted outside the first round—opted to enter the NBA draft, instead choosing to retain collegiate eligibility and benefit from expanding NIL opportunities. The impact of these changes has grown over time, with players ranked as fringe prospects increasingly likely to remain in college, while highly ranked first-round prospects show minimal change in draft entry behavior. The findings suggest that NIL and transfer rule liberalization provide financial incentives for lower-ranked players to delay professional entry, potentially allowing them to improve draft stock and complete more education.