No-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu: A Markovian analysis of elite-level combat dynamics.

This article focuses on the tactical analysis of no-gi Brazilian jiu-jitsu (NGJJ), a grappling combat sport performed without the traditional uniform, using data from the 2019 World Submission Fighting Championship. Employing a Markovian process and Bayesian statistical methods, the study quantified the frequency of key match actions, transitions between them within and between competitors, and their reward–risk balance (RRB), defined as the probability of submitting an opponent minus the probability of being submitted. Results showed that while most actions occurred less than once per competitor per match, submission attempts were the most frequent, and the back-take action had the highest positive RRB and probability of leading directly to submission. The findings highlight preferential tactical sequences associated with winning and provide evidence-based insights to enhance performance prediction and coaching strategies in elite-level NGJJ competition.