Measuring the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Elite Swimming Performance.

This article examines how the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted training plans for elite U.S. swimmers preparing for the postponed 2020 Olympic Games and assesses the impact of these disruptions on performances at the 2021 United States Olympic Trials Swimming Meet. Using surveys of swimmers and coaches conducted before the Trials and historical U.S. national rankings data from 1999 to 2019, the study tests four hypotheses regarding overall performance declines, greater negative effects on distance swimmers, uniformity of impact across stroke disciplines, and advantages for higher-ranked swimmers with better access to alternative training facilities. The findings indicate that all swimmers' performances generally fell short of expectations, with distance swimmers and certain stroke disciplines (notably women's butterfly and men's freestyle) experiencing larger declines, while higher-ranked swimmers performed closer to forecasts, suggesting disparities in training access. These results align with broader research on COVID-19's uneven effects across health, education, and labor sectors, highlighting the pandemic's significant impact on elite athletic preparation and outcomes.