Show Me the Money! The Immediate Impact of Name, Image, and Likeness on College Football Recruiting.

This article examines the impact of name, image, and likeness (NIL) policies on college football recruiting by analyzing recruiting data from 247 Sports and NIL valuations from On3 for the 2022–2024 recruiting cycles. The study finds that while higher NIL earnings potential at a university correlates with improved recruiting outcomes, the substantial increases in NIL funding needed to significantly alter recruiting success are likely cost-prohibitive for most programs. Consequently, NIL is identified as an additional recruiting tool rather than a factor that will dramatically shift the distribution of talent in college football, with elite programs continuing to compete primarily among themselves and mid-tier programs maintaining their relative positions. The research controls for various factors including university and coach fixed effects, scholarship restrictions, and transfer portal activity, concluding that NIL's influence on competitive balance is modest and unlikely to reorder the traditional recruiting hierarchy.