Factors Associated With Rape Case Attrition in the South African Criminal Justice System: A National Cross-Sectional Study.

This article focuses on the patterns and factors associated with the attrition of rape cases within the South African criminal justice system (CJS), based on a nationally representative sample of 3,952 cases reported in 2012. It found that 35% of cases were closed by police, 31% declined by prosecutors, 16% struck off the court roll before trial, 19% proceeded to trial, and 9% resulted in convictions. Key factors influencing case progression included thorough police investigations, forensic evidence collection (notably Sexual Assault Evidence Collection Kits completed within 96 hours), arrest and charging of perpetrators, and aggravating circumstances such as use of weapons or physical force. The study also identified that extra-legal factors—such as victim characteristics, victim-perpetrator relationships, and racial disparities—affected attrition, with cases involving Black African victims and intimate partner or stranger perpetrators facing higher attrition. The findings highlight the need for systemic improvements in investigative rigor, interdepartmental coordination, adequate resourcing, and ongoing training to address biases and rape stereotypes that impact case outcomes.