Bangladesh and sea-level rise

Historical and Political Context

Among the world’s nations, Bangladesh has one of the largest populations at risk from coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surges, because some 80 percent of the country is floodplain. The country's floodplains are formed by major rivers like the Brahmaputra, Padma, and Meghna, which drain into the Bay of Bengal. These floodplains include active river areas, tidal zones, and piedmont regions, making the country highly prone to flooding.

It is located in South Asia and borders India, Myanmar, and the Bay of Bengal. The country became part of the new nation of Pakistan in 1947, after India and Pakistan gained independence from England. It was known then as East Pakistan. In 1971, it became independent with the help of India after a brief civil war and changed its name to Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is about the size of Wisconsin, with a population of roughly 176 million, which makes it one of the most densely populated countries in the world. Its government is a parliamentary democracy, and Islam is the state religion. The 1972 constitution has undergone sixteen amendments and creates three branches of governments, the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The prime minister is the head of government (executive) and elected by the majority party in parliament. The unicameral parliament is known as Jatia Sangsad and is made up of 350 members, including fifty seats reserved for women. The highest judicial body is the supreme court, which operates independently of the executive branch.

The nation has experienced political instability since its inception. The first two national leaders were assassinated, beginning with President Sheikh Mujibur in 1975. The country’s limited resources can be blamed in part on this political violence. Being residents of a developing nation, a majority of Bangladesh’s people depend on agriculture. However, flooding has continued to decrease the available farmland in the country. The government has been unable to address basic issues, such as protection of life and property.

Impact of Bangladeshi Policies on Climate Change

Flood control measures in Bangladesh were limited mainly to building embankments (artificial levees), polders, and drainage canals. The Bangladesh Water Development Board has constructed about seventeen hundred flood-control structures along with several thousand kilometers of embankments and drainage canals. Most of these projects have created a false sense of security for the residents, even though many of the projects have experienced breaching and erosion since they were constructed. During the 1999 floods, the Gumtl embankment at Etbarpur was breached, creating substantial damage to properties and the environment. The government also adopted a World Bank-sponsored flood action plan after the 1988 flood. The plan called for the construction of hundreds of kilometers of tall embankments along the major rivers of the country’s delta, as well as huge drains and several compartments on the floodplains.

By 1992, the government began to shift its policy from a narrow focus on flood control to flood and water management. It produced several five-year plans with guidelines for development. One of the plans entailed involving all concerned government agencies, as well as local people, in implementing future embankments and other flood-control and drainage programs.

After the 1998 floods, the government worked with several nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and donor nations to set up both short-term and long-term projects aimed at controlling or managing floods. These projects included government distribution of free seeds to farmers to reduce food shortages, as well as construction of large flood-protection shelters raised above the ground to protect both people and animals. The government also constructed flood-proof storage sheds to hold grains and other food supplies, dams upstream of the capital city of Dhaka, and a major embankment around the city itself. Emergency flood warning systems were improved, and contingency plans formulated for the deployment of rescue and relief services. Villages—particularly remote villages that are difficult to reach during flooding—were stocked with emergency medical stores. The government also implemented reforestation programs and animal grazing controls in an attempt to increase absorption and reduce water runoff.

Bangladesh as a GHG Emitter

By the early 2020s, Bangladesh accounted for approximately 0.3 to 0.4 percent of global emissions. As a result, it is not bound by a specific target for greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The emission levels of Bangladesh and other developing countries are so low that they are not bound by the Kyoto Protocol. The treaty commits only the industrialized countries that ratified it to reduce the amount of six GHGs by 5.2 percent of the 1990 levels during the five years from 2008 to 2012. Participation in Kyoto Protocol initiatives helped Bangladesh build institutional capacity for climate planning. It began developing national greenhouse gas inventories and systems for tracking climate finance, laying the foundation for more structured mitigation and adaptation efforts. These initiatives were particularly significant given the country’s high vulnerability to cyclones, sea-level rise, and flooding.

Despite remaining a relatively small contributor to global GHG emissions, Bangladesh signed the Paris Agreement in 2016. The Paris Agreement is a global climate accord in which nearly all nations committed to limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius (35.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels through nationally determined emissions reduction plans. Bangladesh’s involvement in the Kyoto framework paved the way for its more proactive role under the Paris Agreement. While still not bound by mandatory reductions, Bangladesh submitted Nationally Determined Contributions outlining voluntary mitigation and adaptation strategies. Under both agreements, Bangladesh emphasized climate justice, arguing that major emitting nations must support vulnerable states through finance and technology transfers.

By 2021, in its updated submission under the Paris Agreement, Bangladesh voluntarily pledged to reduce GHG emissions by 6.7 percent unconditionally and up to 15.1 percent conditionally by 2030 compared to a status quo scenario, contingent on international financial and technological support. The country also established a National Adaptation Plan (2023–2050) and launched the Mujib Climate Prosperity Plan, which shifted its strategic focus from climate vulnerability to climate-resilient economic growth. In 2022–23, Bangladesh began piloting a national carbon registry and MRV (measurement, reporting, and verification) system to access global carbon markets and climate finance mechanisms.

Summary and Foresight

Bangladesh is situated in the delta of three major rivers, the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna, which eventually empty into the Bay of Bengal. These rivers have large volumes of water with large drainage basins that increase the flood risk. Moreover, Bangladesh is a very low-lying country: Almost 70 percent of Bangladesh's land area is less than 1 meter (3.28 feet) above sea level, and 80 percent of the country is located in a floodplain. Thus, the country’s location, climate, and geography make it susceptible to the effects of climate change and also extremely hard to protect from those effects. The courses of its rivers are constantly shifting, making it difficult to build up riverbanks to protect farmland. Bangladesh has responded to climate change with huge projects and programs, but it will need cooperation from its neighbors, especially India, to achieve meaningful results.

Key Facts

• Population: 176 million (2025 estimate)
• Area: 144,000 square kilometers (89477.5 square miles)
• Gross domestic product (GDP): US$437 billion (purchasing power parity, 2023 estimate)
• Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in millions of metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e): 169.05 in 2012
• Kyoto Protocol status: Ratified October 2001
• Paris Agreement status: Ratified 2016

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