Famine from global warming

As global climate change continues, floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events driven by these changes are likely to significantly reduce food production and distribution, resulting in famine in various parts of the world.

Background

Some groups deny that continuing global warming will lead to famine, arguing that the warmer climate exerts beneficial effects on food production and that the increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) production from global warming serves as a fertilizing agent for plants. However, numerous researchers associated with respected organizations conclude that climate change is real and that it is possible to predict when and where the most severe famines are likely to occur.

Findings of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Established in 1990, the Hadley Centre is recognized for the quality of research on climate change conducted by hundreds of scientists in its climate research unit. In 2006, the center predicted that about one-third of the Earth would become desert by 2100, as a result of drought and its consequent desertification. A 2018 study by Nature Climate Change confirmed this trend, noting that more than 25 percent of Earth was expected to experience serious drought and desertification by 2050. Areas of the world already affected by drought, such as Africa, will likely experience the most severe effects. The people predicted by the Hadley Centre to be the first victims of world climate change, called “climate canaries,” will be about 3 million pastoral nomads in northern Kenya. A way of life that has been sustained for thousands of years, therefore, faces eradication. Beginning in the 2000s, numerous herders abandoned their traditional way of life and settled in Kenya’s northeastern province after their livestock were decimated. The situation is not limited to Kenya; millions of people across Africa have experienced the adverse effects of drought attributable to climate change. The problem is not unique to Africa: populations and food sources in Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, and Iran are at risk due to drought and other effects of climate change.

Predictions of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) likewise predicts the most severe impact of diminished food production and resulting famine to occur in African countries below the Sahara Desert. Desertification could result in an increase of as many as 90 million hectares of arid land, an area almost four times the size of Britain. The FAO’s predictions are not limited to Africa: Sixty-five developing countries, including more than half of the total population of the developing world in 1995, are expected to lose around 254 million metric tons of potential grain production because of climate change. Nor are the “extreme weather events” limited to drought and desertification. Flooding will bring devastating effects as well. During the first decade of the twenty-first century, more than six hundred floods caused $25 billion in damage, a substantial amount of which included the loss of some 254 million metric tons of potential cereal production. Another FAO study reported that at least 10 million people in Malawi, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini (formerly Swaziland) are threatened with starvation; even at harvest time, a serious food crisis persists. The United Nations (UN) warned that to ensure food security for the 9.6 billion people projected to live on Earth by 2050, especially in the face of climate change obstacles, food production needed to see an increase of at least 60 percent.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization also predicted in the early 2020s that the La Niña weather pattern would further complicate global food crises. The resulting floods and droughts have the potential to threaten the delicate food systems of millions of people across numerous nations, including South Sudan, Haiti, Mali, Palestine, Chad, Lebanon, Myanmar, and more.

Scholze’s Predictions

Mark Scholze of Bristol University has conducted research for the organization Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System (QUEST) involving world climate simulation predictions through the twenty-first century based on sixteen climate models. He poses several scenarios regarding fire, flood, and famine by the year 2100 and predicts that the effects of an average of 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit) in global temperature rise are inevitable and will cause deforestation of up to 30 percent in parts of Europe, Asia, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia. Freshwater shortages, likely due to drought, can be expected with a rise of 2° to 3° Celsius (3.6° to 5.4° Fahrenheit) in parts of West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern United States. As trees are lost, tropical Africa and South America will be subject to flooding.

Should a 3° Celsius (5.4° Fahrenheit) temperature increase occur, an even more dangerous scenario is likely: as temperatures rise, plants may begin to grow more vigorously and take up more carbon dioxide from the air. When saturated, the ecosystem begins to respire more than it is taking up. Scholze’s data, which are in line with findings of the Hadley Centre, indicate that this tipping point could arrive by mid-century. These phenomena would cause a decrease in worldwide cereal crop production of between 18 and 363 million metric tons and put 400 million more people in famine conditions. Scholze insists that fossil fuel combustion must be significantly curtailed before 2040.

Context

During the past 2 million years, the climate on Earth has alternated between cooling and warming. Thus, one might question the concern during the latter twentieth and early twenty-first centuries over global warming. The concern arises because Earth is warming faster than in the past, driven by the release of more greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. Over one hundred years ago, people worldwide began using more coal and oil for homes, factories, and transportation, thereby releasing CO₂ and other GHGs into the atmosphere. Scientific data reveal that during the past century, the world’s surface air temperature increased an average of 0.6° Celsius (1° Fahrenheit). Even one degree can affect Earth’s climate.

Heavier rainfall has caused flooding in some areas, while there has been extreme drought in others, resulting in famine. The first half of the twentieth century was not unusual: The period of 1900 to 1939 brought mild winters, characteristic of a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) condition. However, in the 1950s, the global average temperature fell, and some thought an ice age was imminent. Then, the NAO suddenly flipped to high, and many scientists declared that the warming was a permanent phenomenon because of humans’ promiscuous use of fossil fuels, making the likelihood of famine a consistent concern.

Key Concepts

• climate canaries: the first victims of world climate change, who serve as early warnings to others
• climate change scenario: a physically consistent set of changes in meteorological variables based on accepted projection of carbon dioxide and other trace gas levels
• desertification: the gradual transformation of habitable land into desert due to climate change or destructive land use
• drought: an extended period of months or years when a region experiences a deficiency in its water supply
• greenhouse gas (GHG): any atmospheric gas that absorbs radiation, contributing to the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere

Bibliography

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Cline, William R. Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Center for Global Development, 2007.

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Folland, Chris K., et al. "History of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research." Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 59, no. 11, Dec. 2006, doi:10.1256/wea.121.04. Accessed 25 Dec. 2025.

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McCaffrey, Paul, editor. Global Climate Change. H. W. Wilson, 2006.

Simon, Scott, and Hadeel Al-Shalchi. "A Drought Caused by Climate Change Has Led to Famine in the Horn of Africa." NPR, 27 May 2023, www.npr.org/2023/05/27/1178575879/a-drought-triggered-by-climate-change-has-led-to-famine-in-the-horn-of-africa. Accessed 25 Dec. 2025.

Thomas, Leah. "Earth Will Start Becoming a Desert by 2050 If Global Warming Isn't Stopped, Study Says." Newsweek, 3 Jan. 2018, www.newsweek.com/earth-desert-2050-global-warming-768545. Accessed 25 Dec. 2025.

"The World's Food Supply Is Made Insecure by Climate Change." United Nations, www.un.org/en/academic-impact/worlds-food-supply-made-insecure-climate-change. Accessed 25 Dec. 2025.