Vulnerability of the Maldive Islands to rises in sea level

IDENTIFICATION: Small island nation in the central Indian Ocean, southwest of Sri Lanka

Because of their very low elevation, the Maldive Islands are especially vulnerable to the rises in sea level that are projected to accompany progressive global warming.

The Maldives or Maldive Islands, formally known as the Republic of Maldives, comprise 1,192 very small islands, many of which are little more than coral reefs resting on the tips of an undersea volcanic ridge running north-south in the Indian Ocean, some 700 kilometers (435 miles) southwest of Sri Lanka. The landmass of the islands amounts to 300 square kilometers (116 square miles) spread over an ocean area of some 90,000 square kilometers (35,000 square miles). The islands are protected by reefs that form lagoons around them, shielding them from the ocean waves, especially during the monsoon storms that rage annually from April to October. Approximately 200 of the islands are inhabited, supporting a population of over 525,000. The republic’s capital is Malé, with a population of over 211,000. Around 2 million tourists visit the Maldives every year, passing through the large international airport located near the capital.

Until the mid-twentieth century, the population of the Maldives was approximately 100,000 and was largely supported by fishing, with a small amount of agriculture. Around 1970, the islands were discovered by the tourist industry, and by 2010, tourism accounted for approximately 30 percent of the islands’ gross domestic product (GDP) and 90 percent of government revenues. Throughout the 2010s and through the mid-2020s, tourism accounted for 20 to 30 percent of the country's GDP. Approximately one hundred resorts were developed on some of the previously uninhabited islands by the mid-2000s, offering scuba diving, surfing, fishing, cruising, and sunbathing on the white sandy beaches as their main attractions. The population of the Maldives has grown, supplemented by large numbers of workers from mainland India. Food and freshwater resources of the islands have been put under increasing strain, and competition for suitable living space has grown with the population.

However, the Maldives’ dependence on the tourist industry and the population pressures the islands have experienced as a result are overshadowed by the projected rise in sea levels that could be caused by the melting of the Earth’s ice shelves and glaciers as global warming progresses. The average ground level in the islands is only 1.5 meters (5 feet) above sea level, and the highest point is only 2.3 meters (7.5 feet). Scientists have estimated that a rise in sea levels from 0.5 to 1.4 meters (1.7 to 4.6 feet) could occur during the twenty-first century. The worst-case scenario for the island nation of the Maldives is complete inundation.

In 2008, the then-president of the Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed, proposed taxing tourists to create a sovereign wealth fund that the nation could use to buy land in India, Sri Lanka, and Australia in the event that the islands were flooded and their inhabitants became ecological refugees. This radical plan was accepted, but the Maldives also joined with other members of the Alliance of Small Island States to pressure larger nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions and provide help and resources to island states affected by rising sea levels.

Another environmental problem for the Maldives was the damage caused to the islands’ coral reefs by the 2004 Asian tsunami. A massive earthquake in the Indian Ocean produced waves more than 4 meters (13 feet) high, engulfing the nation and causing widespread destruction, including to the fragile reef ecosystems.

In 2021, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimated that, with global sea levels rising at an average rate of 3 to 4 millimeters per year, the Maldives could become completely uninhabitable by 2050. In 2020, the BBC reported that the Maldivian government was well underway in its construction of an artificial island, Hulhumalé, off the coast of Malé, intended to serve as a more climate-resilient dwelling for the country's inhabitants. Construction of the island began in 1997 and proceeded in phases. Phase 1 (1997-2002) involved 188 hectares (460 acres), with a capacity for a population of 88,000. Phase 2, which began in 2015, included 244 hectares (602 acres) to accommodate 145,000 residents. Plans also included connecting the phases by bridges to span the channel between them.

By 2022, more than 53,000 people were living on the Phase 1 island. Initially, it was used to alleviate a housing shortage in the overcrowded capital. To create and enlarge Hulhumalé, millions of tons of sand have been pumped from the ocean floor. The manufactured island rises to 2 meters (6.5 feet) above sea level.

The buildings on Hulhumalé, including housing complexes, are designed to be sustainable. Residential buildings have been designed to reduce heat. The streets are designed with wind corridors to reduce the need for air conditioning, and green areas, including parks and a wetland, will also reduce heat. Solar panels were installed on the roofs of high-rise buildings on Phase 1. Hulhumalé also has community urban farming plots where sustainable urban farming practices are employed. The second phase of its urban farming initiative, under the Project for Developing a Sustainable Agricultural Economy (PDSAE), was launched in June 2025. Other plans included a sustainable waste management material recovery facility, which opened in 2023, and a waste-to-energy treatment plant on the nearby island of Thilafushi.

Hulhumalé offers residents of the Maldives a safe housing option, but as climate change continued to devastate the island in the early 2020s, some scientists predicted that the natural archipelago could be uninhabitable by 2050.

Bibliography

Heger, Martin, et al. "Rising to the Climate Challenge: How the Maldives Can Thrive in a Warming World ." World Bank Blogs, 20 May 2025, blogs.worldbank.org/en/endpovertyinsouthasia/thriving-in-a-warming-world--how-maldives-can-adapt-to-climate-c. Accessed 24 Sept. 2025.

Hockly, T. W. The Two Thousand Isles: A Short Account of the People, History, and Customs of the Maldive Archipelago. Asian Educational Service, 2003.

Koons, Eric. "Sea Level Rise in the Maldives: A Nation on the Front Line ." Climate Impacts Tracker Asia, 13 June 2024, www.climateimpactstracker.com/maldives-sea-level-rise. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.

"Maldives' Man-Made Islands Offer Answer to Sea-Level Rise." Eco-Business, 7 Mar. 2023, www.eco-business.com/news/maldives-man-made-islands-offer-answer-to-sea-level-rise-2. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.

Miller, Norman. "A New Island of Hope Rising from the Indian Ocean." BBC Travel, 10 Sept. 2020, www.bbc.com/travel/article/20200909-a-new-island-of-hope-rising-from-the-indian-ocean. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.

Musmanni, Gabriela Diaz. "Hulhumalé, Maldives: Monumental Climate Adaptation Effort Raises Hope in a Threatened Paradise." Global Center on Adaptation, 25 Feb. 2022, gca.org/hulumale-maldives-monumental-climate-adaptation-effort-raises-hope-in-a-threatened-paradise. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.

Phandmis, D. Maldives: Wind of Change in an Atoll State. South Asian Publishers, 1995.

Rasheed, Shafraz. "The Maldives: The Future of Climate Change ." Foreign Policy in Focus, 7 Jan. 2025, fpif.org/the-maldives-the-future-of-climate-change. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.

Voiland, Adam. "Preparing for Rising Seas in Maldives." NASA Earth Observatory, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 8 Apr. 2021, earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/148158/preparing-for-rising-seas-in-the-maldives. Accessed 20 Sept. 2025.