2004 elections in the United States

Presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections held November 2, 2004

Presidential Campaign

In 2004, Americans reelected Republican president George W. Bush. Much like the presidential election that preceded it, though without the prolonged recount and court battle, the 2004 election came down to the electoral votes of a single state. The Republican Party also picked up seats in the Senate and in the House of Representatives.

The 2004 election was largely a referendum on the policies of President George W. Bush throughout his eventful first term. Less than a year into his presidency, the United States was attacked by terrorists affiliated with the international network al-Qaeda on September 11, 2001. The United States invaded Afghanistan in 2002 and in March of the following year invaded Iraq, alleging that Iraqi president Saddam Hussein was harboring weapons of mass destruction, although no such weapons were ever found. The wars continued through 2004 and proved to have a significant influence on that year’s elections.

While Bush, as the incumbent, received the Republican nomination with little opposition, a number of politicians emerged as contenders in the Democratic primary election. Vermont governor Howard Dean emerged as the early front-runner for the nomination, winning support for his opposition to the war in Iraq. Dean was one of the first candidates to run a successful fundraising campaign on the Internet. However, Dean’s popularity waned, in large part because of media portrayals of him as angry and prone to gaffes. By March, Massachusetts senator John Kerry was the only candidate left standing in a field that once included Dean, General Wesley Clark, Missouri representative Dick Gephardt, Ohio representative Dennis Kucinich, Connecticut senator and former vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman, and Reverend Al Sharpton. After the collapse of Dean’s campaign, Kerry’s most fierce competitor was North Carolina senator John Edwards, who withdrew from the race after Super Tuesday. In July, Kerry announced that he had chosen Edwards, a moderate, young southerner, as his running mate. At the Democratic National Convention later that month, Illinois senate candidate and future president Barack Obama gave the keynote address that changed the course of his political career.

Presidential Election Results

Source: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.

Foreign policy was the dominant issue of the campaign, along with the newly declared War on Terror. During his first term, Bush was criticized for his aggressive unilateral policies. Though several countries backed the United States–led invasion of Iraq—most notably Great Britain and Australia—many others were largely opposed to the action. The photographs of tortured prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq that emerged in early 2004 also had a devastating effect on foreign perceptions of the United States. The fact that much of the election revolved around these events and discussions of foreign policy is unsurprising in its context but historically unusual. In 2003, a Gallup poll reported that terrorism and the economy topped the list of extremely important issues to Americans in the upcoming election, with more Republicans citing terrorism and more Democrats citing the economy.

Kerry, a veteran politician, called for more caution in the Middle East and advocated repairing damaged relationships with US allies. The then-junior senator had voted to go to war in Iraq in 2002, though when he announced his campaign for president, he said that he had done so simply to threaten the use of force. He stuck by the vote based on the evidence that was presented to him at the time—namely, the information that suggested that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Still, in 2003, Kerry voted against providing $87 billion in funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kerry tried to explain that he did not want to fund the wars on borrowed money and had voted for a defeated measure that would scale back the Bush tax cuts to fund the wars. Nevertheless, the voting issue and others led opponents to describe Kerry as a “flip-flopper” who wavered on the issues. In addition, Kerry’s speaking style was considered by some to be stiff or wooden, and his modifiers and complex explanations were seen as less assured than Bush’s grand proclamations.

Kerry’s military service became the focus of a massive smear campaign funded by a group called Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. As a young man, Kerry volunteered to serve in the Vietnam War, where he spent some time commanding a swift boat; he earned a bronze star, a silver star, and three Purple Hearts for his service. When he returned to civilian life he became an antiwar activist and testified before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations about war crimes committed by US soldiers. During the 2004 election, members of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth led attacks on Kerry’s military record, claiming that Kerry had lied about the actions that earned him his medals. Further investigations yielded little evidence to support their claims, and a number of prominent veterans, including Republican senator John McCain as well as Kerry’s crewmates, defended the candidate. In the years after the 2004 presidential election, the term swiftboating came to be used to describe a particularly vicious political smear campaign.

Groups that were independent of either campaign yet clearly endorsed or denigrated one of the candidates played an unprecedented role in the election. According to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), independent groups spent more than $400 million in the lead-up to the 2004 election. Many were classified as tax-exempt organizations and were thus allowed to collect unlimited contributions. Such organizations were not subject to FEC spending regulations, but they were prohibited from advocating for or against a particular candidate. In 2006, the FEC fined several organizations, including Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and the liberal organization MoveOn.org, for violating this rule.

Exit Polling and Election Night

As the official results came in on election night, it became clear that leaked reports during the day, particularly the raw results from exit polls around the country, had favored Kerry by an erroneous margin. According to a report published in the Washington Post, the national exit poll showed Kerry with a lead of 51 percent to Bush’s 48 percent on election night before the votes were counted. The official election result showed that Bush received 286 electoral votes and 50.7 percent of the popular vote with 62,040,610 votes, while Kerry received 251 electoral votes and 48.3 percent of the popular vote with 59,028,444 votes.

Although less dramatic than the previous presidential election, the 2004 election was likewise decided by the electoral votes of one state. In 2004, that state was Ohio, and much as in Florida in 2000, the voting and vote-counting processes in Ohio came under national scrutiny. Ambiguous legislation, varying standards, long lines, and faulty voting machines were just a few of the problems reported across the state, which Bush won by two percentage points. Despite the arguments of some Kerry supporters, however, most experts agreed that the Ohio result was not a case of widespread partisan disenfranchisement, though they argued that a number of policies disproportionately affected poor voters and that partisan leaders were given too much power in decisions concerning the electoral process.

Congressional and Gubernatorial Elections

Republicans made gains in both the Senate and the House in 2004. Before the election, Republicans had a slim majority in the Senate with fifty-one seats. They gained four more seats in the election, further solidifying their majority. Notable senatorial campaigns included the Illinois race, in which Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Alan Keyes. In the House, Republicans ended election night with 232 seats, up from 229 seats before the election. Democrats, however, won six of the eleven governor’s races. Additionally, initiatives to ban same-sex marriage passed in eleven states.

Impact

The election was a resounding victory for Republicans and for President Bush, who viewed his victory as an indication that he had earned political capital throughout his campaign. News organizations once again reevaluated the way they reported on elections, most notably becoming much more cautious about reporting exit polls. Polling organizations similarly evaluated their approach to handling exit polls, seeking to prevent leaks of data to the media. The 2004 election also laid the groundwork for the ubiquity of the Internet, which would become a key factor in the next presidential election, in political campaigns.

Bibliography

Ceasar, James Wilbur, and Andrew E. Busch. Red Over Blue: The 2004 Elections and American Politics. Lanham: Rowman, 2005. Print. Analyzes the outcomes of the 2004 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections and discusses their effects.

Cohen, Roger; Sanger, David E., and Steven R. Weisman. “The Bush Record: Challenging Rest of the World with a New Order.” New York Times. New York Times, 12 Oct. 2004. Web. 3 Dec. 2012. Provides an in-depth look at the foreign policies of the Bush administration during the president’s first term.

Denton, Robert E, ed. The 2004 Presidential Campaign: A Communication Perspective. Lanham: Rowman, 2005. Print. Collects a number of essays on issues pertaining to the 2004 presidential election and campaign, focusing in particular on rhetorical strategies, advertising, and other forms of political communication.

Liptak, Adam. “Voting Problems in Ohio Set Off Alarm.” New York Times. New York Times, 7 Nov. 2004. Web. 5 Dec. 2012. Features interviews with officials and scholars regarding the voting problems in Ohio during the election.

Morin, Richard, and Claudia Deane. “Report Acknowledges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Polls.” Washington Post. Washington Post, 20 Jan. 2005. Web. 4 Dec. 2012. Reports on the official analysis of number discrepancies in exit polls during the 2004 election.

Williams, Andrew Paul, and John C. Tedesco, eds. The Internet Election: Perspectives on the Web in Campaign 2004. Lanham: Rowman, 2006. Print. Collects a variety of essays discussing the role of the Internet in the 2004 election, focusing in particular on campaigning and promotion.

Woodward, Bob. Plan of Attack: The Definitive Account of the Decision to Invade Iraq. New York: Simon, 2004. Print. Reports on the events leading up to the Iraq War, which became a key area of contention among candidates during the 2004 elections.