Iran Nuclear Agreement: Overview

Introduction

Despite the end of the Cold War and the United States–Soviet nuclear arms race in the early 1990s, the threat of a nuclear war has continued through the first decades of the twenty-first century. The world in which this threat exists, however, is far more fractured than the “East versus West” environment of the Cold War. The nuclear-armed states recognized by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—are not the only countries to possess nuclear weapons. Countries such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea also possess such weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Other countries have at times been suspected of or are rumored to have WMD programs, including Israel and Iraq.

Complicating the issue is the pursuit of nuclear energy. Many industrialized nations use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, and many other countries have expressed an interest in developing their own nuclear energy programs. Iran, a longtime critic of the United States and Israel, is one such nation. However, the concern among many observers in the international community has been that Iran’s interests in nuclear energy are not just in developing reactors capable of providing electricity. Rather, the worry is that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear warheads and missile technology capable of delivering them into Israel, Europe, and elsewhere.

In the summer of 2015, delegations from the five permanent members of the United Nations (UN) Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—as well as from Germany and the European Union, after extensive negotiations with leadership in Iran, announced an agreement regarding Iran’s nuclear program. In exchange for the lifting of long-standing economic and financial sanctions against Iran, the Iranian government agreed to make its nuclear energy program more transparent and forswear the development of weapons-grade plutonium.

In October 2017, US president Donald Trump announced that he would not recertify Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, and the following year, he announced the United States was withdrawing from the deal altogether and reimposing sanctions on Iran. The remaining signatories to the agreement pledged to continue to uphold it. However, as a result of the US withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions, in July 2019 Iran announced it had exceeded the limit on uranium enrichment it had agreed to in the deal. Tensions grew, and by the early 2020s, the question remained whether it would be possible, or desirable, to retain the agreement.

Understanding the Discussion

Enriched plutonium/uranium: Plutonium or uranium that, through the process of isotope separation, has been given a higher concentration of fissile isotopes and, therefore, can be used to create a nuclear weapon.

Fission: The process by which the nucleus of an atom is split, generating energy.

Iranian Guardian Council: A twelve-person council created to exercise a great deal of power and influence over the Iranian Republic. There are six Islamic jurists on the twelve-member council.

Iranian Revolution of 1979: A sociopolitical movement that resulted in the resignation and exile of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi in 1979. The Islamic Republic of Iran was created, and the republic became heavily influenced by the conservative Iranian Guardian Council and the theological council of the ayatollahs.

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): A paramilitary organization founded to protect the Islamic Republic from enemies of the Iranian Revolution of 1979.

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA): The July 2015 agreement reached between Iran and China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States by which Iran pledged to restrict its nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions.

Satrapies: A provincial governmental organization, administered regionally through a large empire.

Shia Islam: A branch of the Islamic faith that views the imam Ali, the Prophet Muhammad’s cousin and son-in-law, as the rightful successor of the Prophet. This is in conflict with the Sunni branch, which holds that religious leaders should be elected.

Strait of Hormuz: The narrow waterway allowing access to the Persian Gulf from the Indian Ocean and the open sea lanes. The straits are bordered by Iran on the north and Oman on the south.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons: Also known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), a 1968 international agreement in which the signatories pledged not to use or sell nuclear weapons and to instead promote nuclear disarmament.

Weapons of mass destruction (WMDs): Weapons designed to inflict maximum damage and/or casualties within a broad target range.

Weapons-grade plutonium/uranium: Plutonium or uranium that contains the highest concentration of fissile isotopes and that therefore is optimal for nuclear weapons.

History

Modern Iran is a Middle Eastern country located at a major crossroads of the world and has a lengthy history. Its roots can be traced to the Achaemenid Persian Empire (550–330 BCE), the largest empire of the ancient world, which, at its height, stretched close to 5 million miles. That empire fell to Alexander the Great of Macedonia and remained under Greek rule until about 250 BCE. Control of the area then passed to the Parthian Empire (247 BCE–224 CE) and the Sassanid Empire (224–651 CE), before Arab forces established the Islamic Caliphate of Baghdad in the mid-600s and made Shia Islam the dominant religion. The caliphate was conquered in turn by the Seljuk Turks and the Mongols in 1037 and 1219 CE, respectively. In 1501 CE a new Iranian dynasty asserted control over the eastern part of the caliphate. The Safavid dynasty ruled until 1736, when imperial Russian forces and their Ottoman Turkish allies invaded. At the center of a struggle between the Russian, Ottoman, and British empires, a quasi-independent Persia emerged. The 1907 Anglo-Russian Convention, which created Russian and British zones of influence in western Persia, and the Ottoman-German alliance during World War I served to destabilized the Persian Qajar dynasty, however.

As a result, Reza Shah Pahlavi took over in 1925 and in 1935 changed the country's name to Iran. The Pahlavi dynasty, with US and British support, attempted to modernize Iran through major social advances, including women’s suffrage, modernized schools and literacy campaigns, and land ownership reform. These changes were met with resistance by conservative religious elements, led by its Islamic clerics, the ayatollahs.

Iran’s nuclear energy production began under the Pahlavi dynasty in the 1950s, with the US supplying nuclear materials and technologies to Iran for the peaceful development of power plants. Although the Cold War (1946–91) is remembered primarily as a tense period of nuclear weapons buildup amid tensions among the Soviet Union, the US, and their allies, it was also an era in which the peaceful applications of nuclear fission found popularity. Nuclear energy became known as a clean, cost-efficient, and highly valuable energy source around the world.

Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1970 as a non-nuclear weapon state. The NPT allows for the “peaceful” use of nuclear technology but advocates for disarmament and nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. As a signatory, Iran could enrich uranium for the purposes of nuclear power development; however, this ability was contingent upon inspections and approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), an organization that seeks to inhibit military applications of nuclear technology and to promote its use for applications such as power and fuel.

Iran’s progress in constructing and purchasing nuclear power reactors came to a halt with the 1979 revolution, however. In 1979, the Iranian Revolution deposed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and established a theocratic republic with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in power. The Iranian Guardian Council evolved as a means of enforcing the ayatollah’s sociopolitical reforms, and the new government became a strident opponent of both the US and Israel. In 1980 Iran went to war against Sunni-controlled Iraq and found itself increasingly isolated from the global economy, resulting in rising inflation and economic hardships for Iranians.

When Iran emerged from its war with Iraq in 1988, the country began aggressively pursuing a nuclear energy program. During the 1990s, Iran enlisted the help of scientists from Russia to develop and improve the nuclear program started under the shah. Conservatives in government also thwarted President Mohammad Khatami's attempts to enact political reforms in the mid-to-late 1990s.

The firm reestablishment of conservative influence over the Iranian government by the mid-2000s was marked by a combination of aggressive rhetoric against Western nations and Israel, promotion of a ballistic missile program, and the development of a nuclear program. Given those factors, Iran’s location, its persistent support for terrorism and insurgencies in neighboring and nearby countries, its potential control over the Strait of Hormuz, the importance of oil to the developed world, and the regional political atmosphere, the US and other Western nations became concerned over the possibility of a “nuclear Iran.” The possibility of a nuclear Iran and its destabilizing impact on the Middle East created a greater degree of consensus among Western nuclear nations in controlling Iran’s access to nuclear technology.

In the 2000s, the IAEA sought to suspend Iran’s right to nuclear technology, citing its limited access to Iran’s nuclear program and stating that the country was deliberately deceiving the international community in regard to its nuclear program. In 2006 Iran announced its intention to begin enriching uranium, raising concerns that the country was close to developing a nuclear weapon. Between 2006 and 2008, the United Nations (UN) Security Council passed four resolutions calling for Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program and imposing sanctions for its failure to do so. This required the United States to get Russia and China to join in supporting the limiting of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Concern over Iran’s nuclear activity increased in 2011 and 2012. The Bushehr I Reactor, Iran’s first nuclear plant, was opened on September 12, 2011. In November 2011, the IAEA accused Iran of undertaking secret nuclear research and development. As sanctions continued to harm Iran’s economy, it undertook a series of multilateral negotiations with China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the US to try to reach a comprehensive agreement about the Iranian nuclear program that would result in the easing of sanctions. The negotiations revolved around Iran's desire to enrich uranium to generate nuclear power, while the other six powers wanted assurances that Iran would never be able to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.

On July 14, 2015, the seven parties reached an agreement, the 109-page Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran’s nuclear production. The JCPOA sought to address the major points of contention. One was the use of several nuclear enrichment facilities, which the US and others argued were used not for an energy program but instead for enrichment of uranium to manufacture nuclear weapons. The JCPOA reduced Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium by two-thirds for ten years and required the country to dilute or sell 96 percent of its stockpile of low- and medium-enriched uranium for fifteen years. Another major controversy was Iran’s reluctance to allow international inspections of its centrifuges and nuclear facilities. Under the agreement, IAEA inspectors were given long-term ability to inspect any such sites. The lifting of sanctions in return was expected to free up more than $100 billion in frozen assets and enable Iran’s struggling economy to recover. Any Iranian violation of the terms of the agreement would result in the reapplication of those sanctions. The JCPOA came into effect on October 18, 2015. In January 2016, the UN, the EU, and the US all lifted economic sanctions after Iran met its end of the bargain. However, the arms embargo on Iran remained in place.

The approval of the agreement was not without barriers. For example, while the Iranian Parliament overwhelmingly approved the JCPOA, a small but vocal minority of conservatives in that legislative body remained critical. Meanwhile, in the United States, Republicans in the House of Representatives voted down the framework in a symbolic vote, claiming the agreement was insufficient because it did not fully dismantle Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran tested midrange ballistic missiles on January 29, 2017, and surface-to-air and naval ballistic missiles on March 8 and 9. (In a separate 2015 deal, the UN Security Council Resolution [UNSCR] 2231, Iran was urged not to conduct activities related to nuclear-capable ballistic missiles for eight years.) The country’s leadership has maintained that the missile program is its only defensive measure against US or Israeli threats, that the program is not a part of the nuclear agreement, and that because the missiles cannot carry nuclear warheads, they are permissible under UNSCR 2231.

Incoming US president Donald Trump, a Republican, viewed the January missile launch as a violation of the nuclear deal, despite assessments by the IAEA that Iran was in compliance. In October 2017, he declined to recertify the deal and, the following May, announced the US withdrawal, leaving the deal's future uncertain despite the remaining parties pledging to uphold it. The US also unilaterally reimposed sanctions on Iran and threatened to sanction companies from other countries that continued to do business with Iran, a significant blow to the recovering Iranian economy. A year later, Iran responded by announcing it was starting to enrich uranium beyond the maximum threshold set by the nuclear deal.

The Iran Nuclear Agreement Today

Through late 2020, the situation between the US and Iran escalated, despite efforts by the other signatories of the JCPOA to limit tensions and keep the agreement after the unilateral US withdrawal. The US pushed for the reinstatement of UN Resolution 2231 sanctions, accused Iran of striking a Saudi Aramco oil site with a drone and cruise missile in September 2019, and assassinated Iranian major-general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Meanwhile, Iran breached several JCPOA limits on nuclear fuel materials, manufacturing equipment, and facilities, claiming that such actions were remedial and could be reversed if the US sanctions were lifted. The continued escalation cast doubt on the JCPOA's sustainability.

In November 2020, Trump lost his reelection bid to Democrat Joe Biden, who had served as vice president at the time of the JCPOA signing. The US election results raised hopes that the US would rejoin the agreement and that Iran would return to compliance. Despite the Iranian Parliament passing a measure to advance the nuclear program further and resuming uranium enrichment to 20 percent by early 2021, in February the US formally rescinded Trump's request that the UN Security Council reimpose sanctions on Iran. Further talks of the future of the JCPOA were complicated by the IAEA's 2020 discovery of previously undeclared uranium particles at two Iranian sites. In late March 2021, a bipartisan group of forty-three US senators signed a letter to President Biden urging that negotiations between the US and Iran address not only the nuclear deal but also seek to limit Iran's arms exports and secure the release of political prisoners. That May, international talks resumed regarding a possible US return to the JCPOA.

Continued negotiations throughout the 2020s were complicated by the Israel-Hamas war that began in October 2023 and resulted in heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. Israel, in the context of its stated goal of destroying Hamas and Iran’s support of Hamas and other groups identified by Israel as terrorist organizations, conducted an airstrike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, in April 2024 that resulted in the deaths of senior Iranian military officials. In retaliation, Iran launched more than 300 munitions, including missiles and drones, at Israel a few weeks later. The exchange was met with international calls for de-escalation, as many observers feared the outbreak of full-blown warfare over tensions that had been fermenting for years.

The April 2024 attacks marked a drastic escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran and led some international observers to fear that Iran would redouble its efforts to implement a nuclear program, particularly after Israel conducted a missile strike on Iran a few days after Iran’s April attack on Israel. That same month, the Biden administration placed sanctions on Iran intended to restrict Iran’s military capabilities.

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