Climate apocalypse
The term "climate apocalypse" refers to a hypothetical scenario where the severe impacts of climate change could lead to the collapse of human civilization and potentially human extinction. Concern over climate change has significantly increased in the twenty-first century, with a consensus among scientists regarding the reality of anthropogenic climate change, primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Although experts acknowledge the risks associated with climate change, there is considerable debate over the likelihood and timing of catastrophic outcomes, with some projections suggesting dire consequences could begin as early as 2050.
The concept encompasses threats such as widespread food and water insecurity, population displacement, and systemic failures of societies due to climate stressors. These scenarios draw parallels to historical civilization collapses influenced by climate conditions and raise alarms about the fragility of contemporary societies. Additionally, the potential for increased conflict over resources and the spread of infectious diseases amid changing climate conditions is highlighted as a further risk. While some advocate for immediate and transformative action to avert such outcomes, others caution that extreme apocalyptic predictions could undermine public perception of climate initiatives. The discussions surrounding climate apocalypse emphasize the urgent need for innovative solutions and proactive measures to mitigate the evolving threats posed by climate change.
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Climate apocalypse
Scientific and popular concern over climate change and its impacts on both Earth and human civilization have dramatically increased since the turn of the twenty-first century. Experts differ in their assessments of the future trajectory of climate change, but some observers believe its worst effects could endanger the very survival of human civilization.
While a large majority of scientists and researchers agree on the reality of anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change, broad viewpoint divergences continue to define predictions on the potential course of its long-term effects. At the extreme end of these projections are predictions that climate change could bring about a mass-scale societal collapse that could potentially result in human extinction. This hypothetical scenario is often described as the climate apocalypse.
Experts do not agree on either the likelihood or the possible timeline attached to such an event. A 2019 paper published by an Australian climate change policy organization warned that a climate apocalypse could begin as early as 2050 unless the international community takes immediate and transformational action. Other scientists believe the risk of a mass-scale, climate-induced dystopia is remote, with some observers also noting that apocalyptic projections rooted in extreme interpretations of present-day trends risk harming public perception of the climate movement and the legitimacy of its goals.
Background
Scientists widely believe that anthropogenic climate change is a direct result of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHGs include several gases released as a byproduct of fossil fuel usage, with carbon gases drawing the most concern. When burned to produce energy, fossil fuels such as oil and petroleum, natural gas, and coal emit large quantities of carbon and other GHGs. These gases trap solar heat that would normally escape into space inside Earth’s atmosphere, leading to increases in average ambient surface temperatures and other unnatural climate and weather impacts. The term “greenhouse effect” is often used to describe this phenomenon, as GHGs behave much like the glass panes of botanical greenhouses when trapping heat inside the atmosphere.
During the Industrial Revolution (ca. 1760–ca. 1840), humans began using fossil fuels in greatly increased volumes. Fossil fuel consumption rates then rose exponentially as industrialization spread globally, and as Earth’s population soared. Consequently, global average temperatures have risen considerably since the era of the Industrial Revolution. While the data quantifying the precise level of temperature change varies according to the methodology used to calculate it, a commonly cited statistic holds that Earth’s average surface temperature has increased by approximately 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the 1880–1900 period. This seemingly marginal increase has had profound effects on global climate and weather patterns, which result from the major increases in heat accumulation that have accompanied rising average temperatures.
The broad effects of climate change include wider temperature extremes at both the low and high ends of the seasonal spectrum along with heavier periods of rainfall, more intense periods of drought, and reductions in global snow cover, glaciers, and sea ice. Increased melt rates, coupled with the maritime thermal expansion effect that causes large bodies of water to occupy more space as they become warmer, have contributed to rising average sea levels. This, in turn, imperils low-lying islands and human and animal populations living in coastal areas.
Climate change poses numerous threats to the stability of human civilization. According to the World Bank, global food security is already under significantly increased strain due to the negative impacts of heavy rainfall and flooding, longer and more severe heat waves, and the increased frequency of droughts. According to the World Food Programme in 2024, about 258 million people faced acute food insecurity in 2022. This number rose to 283 million in 2023. Rising sea levels could erase multiple island countries and create costly and difficult problems for major coastal cities around the world, many of which double as key shipping ports. Climate change is also linked to increases in sediment and pollutant runoff, saltwater intrusion, and water stress related to heat and drought. The cumulative effects of these factors reduce both the quality and availability of drinking water. The United Nations (UN) and many other expert observers believe that climate change could lead to mass-scale population displacement as its effects intensify in the coming years and decades, creating the potential to cause the largest and most destabilizing humanitarian crisis in global history.
Overview
Climate apocalypse scenarios are generally rooted in mass-scale food and water insecurity and population displacement that could occur in the future if contemporary trends are not addressed and averted. Experts note that naturally occurring climate changes on both regional and global scales are known to have played a role in the transformational changes or total collapse experienced by multiple historical human civilizations. Furthermore, researchers believe that climate change was a major catalyst or contributing factor in each of the five main extinction events that occurred on Earth during the Phanerozoic Era.
Since their earliest beginnings, human societies have adapted to thrive within a relatively narrow climate range. While experts generally believe that scientific development and modern technology have combined to make contemporary civilization more resilient, many researchers also point out that all civilizations—including those of the present day—are relatively fragile entities that can quickly deteriorate and collapse with the introduction of even a single major stressor. Advocates of climate apocalypse scenarios often highlight that climate change holds the potential to introduce multiple such stressors, perhaps simultaneously.
Some observers believe that existing strains on global food and water supplies are very likely to worsen considerably in the near- to medium-term future, especially since a fast-growing global population will place more and more pressure on them. Projections indicate that the global population could reach 9.7 billion by 2050, which would mark an increase of approximately 25 percent from 2020 levels and a spike of nearly 400 percent from the 1950 global population of roughly 2.5 billion. This scenario, sometimes called the “systemic risk” scenario, could see global food and water insecurity take a major toll on the global economy. This, in turn, may trigger a series of systemic and institutional failures that could culminate in a near-total breakdown of established order. Experts believe the systemic risk scenario would likely spark intense conflict on the local, regional, national, and global scales, resulting in the mass-scale loss of human life and the functional destruction of contemporary civilization.
Another scenario, which could occur independently or accompany the systemic risk scenario, holds that changing climate conditions may lead to mass-scale outbreaks of infectious disease. Such outbreaks, which could reach pandemic levels, could cause enormous losses of human life while creating international or global instability marked by the same types of systemic and institutional failures theorized in the systemic risk scenario.
International conflict, resulting from mass population displacement, mass migration, and intense competition over critical resources such as arable land and drinking water, could reach catastrophic levels and potentially cause nuclear war. If such a cataclysmic war were to take place, climate stresses could further endanger the survivors’ ability to rebuild civilized societies. Human extinction, while considered unlikely even in the most extreme climate apocalypse theories, cannot be excluded as a possible outcome in such a situation.
Some experts believe that human civilization may already be on an irreversible course toward a climate apocalypse. Among those who hold such viewpoints, a plurality believes that governments and policymakers should already be working toward response measures that will minimize loss of life and make it more likely for future generations to stage a recovery. Others believe that the 2020s and 2030s represent what could be humankind’s final window to prevent climate change from reaching a threshold of no return, which is often cited as a global average temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Some environmental scientists predict that beyond this threshold, the world’s largest glacial sheets will slide into the sea and melt, causing massive rises in sea level, the flooding and destruction of farmlands, and starvation and water scarcity on a global scale.
Climate apocalypse scenarios have also drawn criticism, including from members of the scientific community fully cognizant of and committed to addressing the grave threats posed by climate change. While many climate apocalypse scenarios are based on observable trends and objective projections, some observers believe they sensationalize the climate debate and detract from the credibility of the climate change movement. At the same time, experts also acknowledge a relative lack of scientific study into the potentially apocalyptic outcomes of the climate crisis. Moderate members of the scientific community generally believe that investigating and preparing for climate apocalypse scenarios is a necessary aspect of considering all possible outcomes.
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