Race-to-the-bottom hypothesis

Definition: Theory that the mobility of international capital pits workers and governments against one another in a competition to underbid and underregulate that results in increasingly primitive working conditions and increasingly lax environmental laws

If the race-to-the-bottom hypothesis is correct, the expected outcomes include widespread environmental deregulation and consequent degradation, especially in the developing world.

According to the race-to-the-bottom hypothesis, globalization dilutes not only the bargaining power of laborers but also the ability of governments to regulate industrial pollution. Desperate to build and maintain their tax bases, states in the developing world compete to appease capital sources with increasingly business-friendly and environment-hostile standards.

Critics of the hypothesis argue that while it may be the case that environmental regulations, working conditions, and pay may have weakened in some regions in the short run, some investment is almost always better than no investment, and the trend will inevitably reverse when market equilibrium has been neared, unemployment has sufficiently diminished, and a requisite degree of regulations have been enacted in an adequate number of states. Some also assert that the process is a necessary growing pain of industrialization, and the developing world’s quality of life and environmental integrity will continue to improve and eventually match that of the global North.

The empirical evidence is unclear. Anecdotal cases of capital flight can be cited, as well as Ireland’s notable attempt to attract capital by lowering environmental standards, and some studies have shown a negative correlation between regulation and investment. Other studies, however, have found environmental regulatory improvement in so-called export processing zones, where one might expect any actual race to the bottom to be most evident. Proponents of the theory, however, maintain that given the profit motive of investors and unquestionably looser restrictions in poorer regions, it is at least reasonable to expect market forces to encourage a suboptimal hovering near the middle, if not an all-out race to the bottom.