Population and Stratification

A wide range of theories exist to explain the relationship between population density and economic well-being. The earliest came from Thomas Robert Malthus, who argued that unchecked population growth will outstrip resources. Today, many researchers reject that notion, finding instead that population density is only indirectly tied to poverty; indeed, blaming population growth is a way to avoid dealing with other, systemic causes of poverty. Ester Boserup posited that instead of destroying resources, a more densely populated locale would provide the incentive for innovation. Recently, an updated version of the Malthusian outlook has gained favor: this is an environmental argument, linking unlimited population growth with environmental degradation. Looking at various societies, in America, Europe, Asia, and Africa, it is clear that there is no universal relationship between population density and economic well-being.

Keywords Anti-Natalism; Boserupian Paradigm; Desertification; Economic Externalities; Environmental Malthusianism; Less Developed Countries; Neo-Malthusianism; Population Density; Poverty Threshold; Quality of Life; Social Stratification; Social Structure

Population & Stratification

Overview

In 1938, Gunnar Myrda wrote:

No other factor—not even that of peace or war—is so tremendously fatal for the destinies of democracies as the factor of population. Democracy, not only as a political form, but with all its content of civic ideals and human life, must either solve this problem or perish (Weiss, 2007, p. 328).

Two of the first and most critical thinkers on the connection between population density and the well-being of society were Malthus and Charles Darwin. At the close of the eighteenth century, Malthus wrote his famous thesis, awakening the world to the danger of unchecked population growth. Malthus proposed the idea that as populations grew and became ever more concentrated, resources would be consumed faster than their replacement rate. Thus, there must be a connection between population density and social well-being, with those least able to secure diminishing resources falling lower on the socioeconomic ladder. Darwin countered that natural selection would bring about a new equilibrium, as the unfit were eliminated, re-establishing the balance between population and carrying capacity.

An alternative view of growth, the Boserupian paradigm, posits that population levels determine the pace of technological change, particularly in the field of agriculture, thus escaping the trap that Malthus foresaw (Klasen, Nestmann, & Cigno, 2006). Stephan Klasen, Thorsten Nestmann, and Alessandro Cigno suggest technological advances depend on population density, not just absolute numbers, as density "facilitates communication and exchange, increases the size of markets and the scope for specialization and creates the required demand for innovation, all of which should spur the creation …of new technologies" (2006, p. 612). They find that there is a clear correlation between an increase in both population density and per capita gross domestic product.

In order to understand the relationship between population density, poverty, and social stratification, it is necessary to first consider the social structure of the locale. Stanley Udy identified five major components of social structure. They are "the individual (personality), group, morphological (physical arrangement, ecology), systemic (interrelationships of activities, social roles), and cultural (norms, values, beliefs)" (in Ferriss, 2006, p. 454). Abbott Ferriss used the concept of social structure to explore how a community—in this case, counties in Georgia—provides the framework for individuals to interact with others to satisfy their needs and goals. Within the community is a hierarchy, with status connected to both monetary and occupational levels. Thus, Ferris argues, inequality, with poverty levels as the index, is inherent in the social structure of the community (2006).

One way to understand the effect of population density on an individual's well-being is to use the World Health Organization's (WHO) definition of quality of life (QoL): "QoL represents the individual's perception of his/her position in life in a cultural context and according to the general social value systems, personal goals, expectations and concerns of life" (Cramer, Torgensen & Kringlen, 2004, p. 103). While some factors might be quite esoteric, others are more quantifiable, such as health, status within the family, ability to achieve significant life goals, as well as socioeconomic and sociopolitical status. V. Cramer and colleagues used these factors to examine how many variables affected QoL in Oslo, Norway. One factor that held true, across ages, gender, and income levels, was a negative correlation between population density and a high quality of life.

Many less developed countries (LDCs) lack an effective tracking system to provide a definitive growth rate for demographic studies; thus projections by the US Census Bureau are considered the most reliable information available. For 2004, the natural increase rate for LDCs overall was under 1.4 per year. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest rate at 2.1 annum, brought down from 2.5 by catastrophic death rates due to AIDS. Places where Peter T. Bauer predicted would have quite high growth rates have moved down to either replacement levels (Iran, Brazil, Tunisia) or sub-replacement fertility (Thailand, Vietnam, China, and parts of India) (Eberstadt, 2005). Of course, some countries, Mexico and Nigeria are examples, have seen skyrocketing population growth as improvements in health and nutrition have decreased mortality rates (Tucker, 2006).

Further Insights

Population Explosion

In 1981, Bauer published his groundbreaking book, Equality, the Third World, and Economic Delusion. His goal was to expose what he saw as the "conspicuous and disconcerting hiatus between accepted opinion and evident reality" (Eberstadt, 2005, p. 141). At the time, all of the development "experts" were making the same case: that rapid population growth was extremely dangerous, especially in low-income areas of the world. The population explosion was certain to have a negative impact on "poverty, unemployment, hunger and social strife" (Eberstadt, 2005, p. 141). Paul R. Ehrlich, author of the best-selling The Population Bomb warned that the "battle to feed all humanity is over" and had been lost. Perhaps the most respected academic voice of the time was that of Ansley Coale, a Princeton economist, who helped to create the "Coale-Hoover model," which taught students of development how to calculate how much wealth and productivity would be wasted on additional children rather than invested for growth (Eberstadt, 2005).

Bauer's argument was quite simple in outlook: He suggested that all the models that predicted a correlation between economic collapse and an increasing population density were simply ahistorical. He pointed to the United States and Western Europe, both of which had rapidly increasing populations while they prospered during the early decades of industrialism. Hong Kong and Japan saw a combination of true scarcity of land, combined with a rapidly growing population, resulting in a substantial increase in affluence in the second half of the twentieth century. Bauer also pointed to examples of places such as central Africa with an excess of open land, bountiful resources, and dire poverty. He argued instead:

The predictions of doom through population growth rest on the idea that economic achievement, progress, and welfare all depend primarily on natural resources, supplemented by physical capital This neo-Malthusian notion is then supplemented by the very non-Malthusian idea that people in LDCs have no will of their own and are simply passive victims of external forces: in the absence of Western-dictated pressures, people in the less developed world would procreate heedless of consequences (in Eberstadt, 2005, p. 143).

What separated Bauer from other economists of his day was his skepticism of mathematical models and a respect for people living in LDCs. Inside of rigid models, improved nutrition and education counted as consumption, a form of negative growth, rather than a means to a more prosperous life. The same was true for reduced mortality and better health. Statistical models had no means of accounting for the positive influence that can come from increased trade or new avenues for the exchange of ideas. He also took offense at the notion that parents living outside of the developed world have no understanding of the consequences of childbearing. He felt this treated parents with "unwarranted condescension" (Eberstadt, 2005, p. 145). Karina Constantino-David and Maricris Valte also took issue with organizations ranging from nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to the United Nations that blamed population growth on poverty, with "indifference to existing social structures that perpetuate poverty" thereby using population increase as a cover for what is "essentially a structurally determined problem" (1994, p. 413).

A central argument leveled against large families is that they create "economic externalities" that the rest of society must bear. When parents have more than two children, their tax dollars cannot possibly cover the societal cost of raising their children; thus the burden is passed on to other taxpayers. In 1990, economic demographers Ronald Lee and Tim Miller examined the economic externalities of childbearing in the United States and compared them with Bangladesh and Kenya. They found the societal cost in the United States was fairly high, but in the two LDCs, both considered prime examples of "population explosion problems," the costs were close to zero. More recent data has shown some societal cost in both countries but not enough to make the argument for economic externalities valid, according to Nicholas Eberstadt (2005).

Anne Booth (2004) suggests that population density is not what is driving poverty in much of Africa. Like Ellis and Heyer, she sees a situation where both the rich and poor of much of rural Africa:

Have access to land and engage in own-account farming, in non-agricultural activities and in migration to seek work." The problem for the poor is that they "do less well in all of these activities." One reason why they do less well is that they live in scattered communities with little or no access to roads, credit, irrigation networks or education (Booth, 2004, p. 19).

She finds that much of the poverty in rural Africa can be traced to sparse population and completely inadequate infrastructure, leading to markets that are either inefficient or that are missing altogether. However, she does see one connection to rapid population growth that points in an ominous direction: a high rate of population increase has led to having up to 40 percent of the population under the age of fifteen in some countries.

Population Density

Demographers tend to see a stark difference between Asian and African poverty; the most significant point of departure is population density. In Indonesia, it has long been assumed that poverty has been the most intense on the inner islands that are the most densely populated. The general consensus of consecutive governments has been "too many people and not enough land." Starting in the 1990s, the household survey of poverty became more sophisticated and reliable. It came as a surprise when the Central Bureau of Statistics released data showing that six of the more sparsely populated provinces had the worse poverty statistics. In fact, these provinces resemble the model of rural African poverty far more than Asian poverty. The infrastructure was completely inadequate; education levels were the lowest in the country. There were few opportunities for labor to work as employees (Booth, 2004).

In Indonesia, there seems to be no significant connection between population growth and poverty. Booth suggests that this might be due to out-migration from the more rural, outer islands to Java, and from all the islands to abroad. However, poverty is associated with an increase with the percentage of the population under fifteen and with infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, for the country as a whole, there was a negative correlation between poverty and population density; Booth concludes that by the mid-1990s "too many people and not enough land" was no longer the critical factor in driving poverty rates.

Overall, birthrates in Asia have been dropping for several decades; at the same time, much of Asia has emerged as a significant player in the global economy. Constantino-David and Valte suggest this "rosy picture" hides an ugly underside to economic growth based on market-driven forces. The Philippines provide an excellent case study of the interface between population density, economic growth and poverty. By 2000, urban areas were expected to hold 58 percent of the country's population. This is a highly stratified country, with the top 20 percent of the population controlling in excess of 50 percent of the income, while the bottom 20 percent had access to no more than 5 percent of the income generated. Through much of the end of the twentieth century, the birthrate in the Philippines remained high.

Manila, one of the world's mega-metropolitan areas, is home to almost half of the population of the Philippines. The city and surrounding municipalities take up 636 square kilometers with an estimated population of more than eleven million. In the 1990s, the population density was 12,498 per square kilometer, a level that was disturbing to city planners. Land speculation increased property values in the city center; looser rules on car construction allowed many in the middle class to afford this new luxury, with gridlock resulting on a highway system that was carrying far beyond its capacity. Pollution levels exceeded those found in New York City or Tokyo by 30 or 40 percent, and a substantial percentage of the city's population was serviced by neither water nor sewers. The urban poor lived in desperate conditions, under bridges, in cemeteries, at the base of dumps, along the edges of subdivisions and highways. Many have been forced off their land by long-running violent conflict or by development projects with the aim of helping the rural poor that in actuality drove up the price of land (Constantino-David & Valte, 1994).

To illustrate the capriciousness of the relationship between population density and social stratification, the counties of Georgia demonstrate the opposite relationship. Ferris measured social stratification in Georgia by using federal guidelines as the line of demarcation for poverty. In 2000, 37.9 percent of black children and 13.3 percent of white children lived in poverty. For both races, population density was one of the most salient factors in determining levels of childhood poverty. Ferriss found a high negative correlation between population density and poverty. In metro counties, with population in excess of one million, 16.6 percent of black children and 7.53 percent of white children lived in poverty. That number jumped significantly as population density decreased. In rural counties that were not contiguous to a metro area, black poverty levels grew to 41.1 percent and white levels to 17.3 percent (2006). B. P. Leaderer, K. Belanger, and their colleagues looked at a different indicator of well-being for American children and found that high population density can play a negative role in affecting outcomes for children (2002). Between 1980 and 1994, asthma cases increased by 75 percent; the severity of cases has also taken a turn for the worse. Asthma has a particularly devastating impact in both the Hispanic and African American communities, with mortality rates up to five times as high as those for white children. Children who live in high- density neighborhoods or in multifamily homes are often exposed to multiple allergens, most importantly from cockroaches.

Viewpoints

Environmental Malthusianism

As antinatal arguments lost sway in the 1980s in face of a growing body of evidence (outside of sub-Sahara Africa) that high population rates and economic development can coexist, a newer form of the Malthusian argument emerged. "Environmental Malthusianism" posits that unfettered population growth cannot be sustained by the earth's ecosystem and will lead to a global collapse of the natural systems upon which societies all depend. Eberstadt considers this an argument worthy of study, rather than of blind allegiance (2005). The Worldwatch Institute is one of the leading voices on this issue. They suggest that during this century, global population could rise to anywhere from 9.5 billion to 12 billion. When countries experience rapid population growth without the infrastructure required to absorb that growth, air and water pollution can result on a "massive scale" (Tucker, 2006, p. 13).

Although Eberstadt considers the antinatal argument dead, his position is not universal. Christopher Flavin argues:

If we grow to 11 or 12 billion people, which is possible if fertility rates do not continue to decline, we are going to be facing miserable conditions in developing countries likely to experience most of the additional population growth, particularly India, parts of Africa, and regions throughout the Middle East (Tucker, 2006, p. 13).

Joseph Speidel shares Flavin's concern, seeing a worldwide consensus on the need for access to health care, yet there are groups actively working against access to family planning, making it much more difficult to ensure social and economic welfare for everyone (Tucker, 2006).

Assuming that the vast majority of people in LDCs continue to eat a primarily vegetarian diet, the world produces more than enough food for an adequate caloric daily intake for all of humanity, yet all of humanity does not get its fair share. Thus, measurements of hunger can be one way to judge the impact of population density on well-being. Between 1990 and 1996, the percentage of people who lived in developing areas of the world saw a slight decline in the percentage of the hungry, from 20 percent to 19 percent. However, absolute hunger levels increased from 822 million to 828 million. For children under the age of five in the developing world, one-third is malnourished (Buttel, 2000). According to data from the United Nations World Food Programme, there were approximately 842 million people worldwide who did not have enough to eat in 2012, representing a decline by 156 million people since 1990. The vast majority of hungry people (827 million) lived in LDCs, where 14.3 percent of the population is undernourished.

Neo-Malthusian Environmentalism

Like so many social issues, there are competing views on the causes and the solutions of hunger. While the issue is quite complex, one aspect includes population density. Some theorists accept a neo-Malthusian explanation; others do not. Thus, there are disagreements over whether population or non-population factors are the most critical. A neo-Malthusian environmentalist might argue that hunger results when population growth degrades the environment to a point that it cannot provide the necessary resources; the response should focus on "policy, technology and institutions designed to bring population and consumption in line with resource limitations" (Buttel, 2000, p. 17). A non-Malthusian observer might suggest that hunger is a result of social inequality, both on a local and global scale. Hunger can be reduced by "lessening inequality and increasing citizenship rights and by reframing global institutions and trade" (Buttel, 2000, p. 17).

Frederick Buttel argues that population increase has a very low correlation with hunger, based on demographic studies that are both cross-national and longitudinal. Population control programs have been controversial and are often rejected by the intended recipients. Whether or not it due to active family planning programs, worldwide population growth rates have been in decline for more than a decade. If there is a connection at all between population density and hunger, it tends to be quite specific to a given region (Buttel, 2000).

One place where there is evidence of the environmental Malthusian outlook is in sub-Saharan Africa. Abigail Amissah-Arthur, Bernard Mougenot, and Maud Loireau looked at a wide range of studies on land- use patterns during the last decades of the twentieth century in the Sudano-Sahelian region and found that desertification is a substantial threat. While they conclude that the role of human activity cannot be assigned as a causal factor, there is strong evidence that "rapid human and livestock population growth, intensification of cultivation, declining rainfall including drought have increased the pressure on natural resources in the arid/semi-arid zones" (Amissah-Arthur, Mougenot & Loireau, 2000, p.584). Thus, farmers have moved into ever more marginal lands and allowed for shorter fallow periods. As they project population trends, they see an ever more intensive use of cropland. There seems to be no evidence of the Boserupian paradigm, whereby technology will develop to reach a new equilibrium with population growth. There is, however, hope for better governmental regulation of cropland.

Amissah-Arthur, Mougenot, and Loireau find that the traditional system of resource management has disintegrated in the face of both global commercial forces and population growth. Long standing, ecologically sound land-management practices that sustained a very fragile ecosystem have been abandoned in favor of short-term solutions. In another area of sub-Sahara Africa, Niger, overall population density is low (6.5 people per square kilometer, but 75 percent of that population lives in a much more concentrated area, with a density ranging from five to fifteen person per square kilometer. The World Bank estimates the carrying capacity for this region to be no more than fifteen persons per square kilometer. As the land exceeds its carrying capacity, one result is out-migration. Almost always it is young men who move in search of employment, leaving behind an increased work burden that often falls on the children (2000). Clearly, the consequences of excessive population density can be severe.

Conclusions

Overall, it is impossible to point to one trend between population density, well-being, and social stratification. In some areas of the world, with examples found in the United States, Europe, Japan, and Indonesia, it appears that in many instances, higher population density allows for more opportunities that increase the quality of life. Manila provides an example where high population density brings intense social stratification and poverty. In other areas, Central Africa being a prime example, low population density and intense poverty coexist. As a Malthusian outlook lost favor with demographers, a new approach that sees unchecked population growth as a grave danger to the carry capacity of earth's natural systems has found many adherents.

Terms & Concepts

Antinatalism/"Neo-Malthusianism": The common wisdom for much of the twentieth century that high population growth rates were a sure route to poverty and resource depletion.

Boserupian Paradigm: Between the 1960s and 1980s, Ester Boserup's work demonstrated that as population grows, especially in agricultural societies, innovation occurs and new technologies develop to ensure the survival of a larger group.

Desertification: A process whereby marginal land in dry areas is overused until it is no longer capable of supporting agriculture.

Economic Externalities: When parents have more than two children, their tax dollars cannot cover the societal cost of raising their children; thus the burden is passed on to other taxpayers.

Environmental Malthusianism: The theory that unfettered population growth cannot be sustained by the earth's ecosystem and will lead to a global collapse of the natural systems upon which societies all depend.

Less Developed Countries: Formerly referred to as third-world countries, these countries have economies that lack much of the modern infrastructure necessary for an advanced economy.

Population Density: A measure of the number of people living per square kilometer.

Poverty Threshold: A measure of the bare minimum necessary to live at a basic standard of living within a given population, which varies based on local conditions.

Quality of Life (QOL): "QoL represents the individual's perception of his/her position in life in a cultural context and according to the general social value systems, personal goals, expectations and concerns of life" (Cramer, Torgensen & Kringlen, 2004, p. 103).

Social Stratification: Refers to the way that a social group is divided, generally along socioeconomic lines.

Social Structure: ''Refers to differentiating average conditions within which people live out their lives'' (Ferriss, 2006, p. 455).

Bibliography

Amissah-Arthur, A., Mougenot, B., & Loireau, M. (2000). Assessing farmland dynamics and land degradation on Sahelian landscapes using remotely sensed and socioeconomic data. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 14 , 583-599. Retrieved September 19, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=3888234&site=ehost-live

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Buttel, F. (2000). Ending hunger in developing countries. Contemporary Sociology, 29 , 13-27. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=3385613&site=ehost-live

Constantino-David, K., & Valte, M. (1994). Poverty, population growth and the impact of urbanization in the Philippines. International Social Science Journal, 46 , 413. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=9504100942&site=ehost-live

Cramer, V., Torgensen, S., & Kringlen, E. (2004). Quality of life in a city: The effect of population density. Social Indicators Research, 69 , 103-116. Retrieved September 17, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=14092126&site=ehost-live

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Fassio, O., Rollero, C., & Piccoli, N. (2013). Health, quality of life and population density: a preliminary study on ‘contextualized’ quality of life. Social Indicators Research, 110, 479–488. Retrieved October 31, 2013 from EBSCO online database SocINDEX with Full Text. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=sih&AN=84765967

Ferriss, A. (2006). Social structure and child poverty. Social Indicators Research, 78 , 453-472. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=21588057&site=ehost-live

Karahan, H. (2013). Does population density have any effect on entrepreneurial rates? Evidence from US counties. Journal of Social and Development Science, 4, 123–130. Retrieved October 31, 2013 from EBSCO online database SocINDEX with Full Text. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=sih&AN=88008781

Klasen, S., Nestmann, T., & Cigno, A. (2006). Population, population density and technological change. Journal of Population Economics, 19 , 611-626. Retrieved September 17, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=21436460&site=ehost-live

Leaderer, B., Belanger, K., Triche, E., Holford, T., Gold, D., Kim, Y., et al. (2002). Dust mite, cockroach, cat, and dog allergen concentrations in homes of asthmatic children in the northeastern United States: Impact of socioeconomic factors and population density. Environmental Health Perspectives, 110 , 419. Retrieved September 17, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=6611489&site=ehost-live

Ovie Ejumudo, K. B. (2012). Managing the development/environment dilemma: the global challenge. Journal of Development Alternatives and Area Studies, 31, 18–44. Retrieved October 31, 2013 from EBSCO online database SocINDEX with Full Text. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=sih&AN=79192966

Tucker, P. (2006). Strategies for containing population growth. Futurist, 40 , 13-14. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=21734785&site=ehost-live

Weiss, V. (2007). The population cycle drives human history -- from a eugenic phase into a dysgenic phase and eventual collapse. Journal of Social, Political & Economic Studies, 32 , 327-358. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=26967484&site=ehost-live

Suggested Reading

Hempel, M. (2013). The United States of changing demographics. Policy and Practice, 71, 24–27. Retrieved October 31, 2013 from EBSCO online database SocINDEX with Full Text. http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=sih&AN=87638333

Li, G., & Weng, Q. (2007). Measuring the quality of life in city of Indianapolis by integration of remote sensing and census data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 28 , 249-267. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=24154662&site=ehost-live

Small, M. (2007). Racial differences in networks: Do neighborhood conditions matter? Social Science Quarterly (Blackwell Publishing Limited), 88 , 320-343. Retrieved September 15, 2008 from EBSCO online database Academic Search Premier: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=aph&AN=24814343&site=ehost-live